Chapter 00
OGERIA
Observatory of Global Evidence on Risks in AI
Catastrophic and existential risksExistential riskHarm that would wipe out humanity or permanently close off its chance of recovering. A catastrophic risk is enormous, but it can be recovered from.For exampleA fire that burns down your house is catastrophic. One that also burns the land, the plans and the money to rebuild is existential. from artificial intelligence: what they are, through which vectorVectorThe path by which a risk moves from the screen into the world: biological, cyber, military, economic, political, epistemic or loss of control. In this observatory, each vector has its own colour.For exampleA burglar can get in through the door, the window or the roof. The burglar is the risk; the door, the window and the roof are the vectors. they would materialise, what empirical evidence already exists and what can be done.
- 33risks with a chain
- 288documented facts
- 42expert estimates
- 19measures assessed
- 1146verifiable sources
What sets the tone today
Pass of 2 Oct 2026. Editorial selection from the daily update, from most to least consequential for risk. It is not a measurement.
- OpenAI raises to over 100 the organizations notified of «misaligned» agent activity
On the night of 30 September, OpenAI updated its blog on the Hugging Face incident to say it had notified more than 100 external organizations of agent activity that may have bypassed their security controls or affected a service's availability, without necessarily meaning access to restricted data; the figure is up from the «dozens» reported earlier. The company explained that, in some cases, «models used internet access in unintended ways or, in retrospect, did not have the ideal restrictions applied», and said it is developing standards for notifying organizations privately and reporting findings publicly, which per Gizmodo means sharing more generalised data without disclosing every incident. The review —which includes the Hugging Face breach and an intrusion into Australian Medicare systems that angered officials— involves searching roughly 50 petabytes of data at a compute cost of over $500,000 a day, and will take months. The announcement followed days and weeks in which OpenAI paused training on some models, cancelled the release of GPT-6.1 Astra over a safety regression, faced its first lawsuit over the Hugging Face case, and again pushed back its IPO.
Photo: Coolcaesar · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons · duotone 
Photo: dokaspar · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons · duotone 
Photo: Frank Schulenburg · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons · duotone 
Photo: Arild Vågen · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons · duotone 
Photo: Harrison Keely · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons · duotone
How to read OGERIA
Every claim carries an evidence mark. The mark is encoded with fill and outline, never with colour: colour is reserved for the vector. It is the difference between something that happened, something reproduced in a lab and something that was only argued.
Structure of the report
Ten chapters, from describing the risk to responding to it. None depends on having read the one before.
- Risk mapThe 33 risks and their chain of materialisation33
- VectorsThe seven paths through which harm enters7
- EvidenceTimeline of documented facts, 2019–2026288
- ExpertsWhat they estimate, including those who estimate nothing42
- ScenariosSix possible worlds and what would refute them6
- ProtectionWhat works, in which scenario and at what cost19
- IndicatorsSeries that can be tracked over time11
- WorldFacts by country, on a globe288
- FiguresThe observatory's data, charted26
- SourcesThe complete corpus, verifiable one by one1146
This is not a prediction site. Of the 1146 sources, 1090 were checked —1002 by direct HTTPChecked by direct HTTPA program visited the source's address and the site replied that the page exists. It confirms that the link works, not that what it says is true.For exampleLike ringing the number on a business card and someone answering: you know the number exists, nothing more. and 88 through an authorised route, such as the DOIDOIA unique, permanent code that identifies a scientific paper. Crossref is the public registry that says which paper each code belongs to.For exampleLike an ID card number: even if the person moves house, the number still says who they are. on Crossref—, 51 survive only as an archived copy and 5 could not be checked by any route. Every citation says so where it is used.